Infrastructure Investment In 2018 Is Expected To Exceed Expectations, And Sales Of Excavators Will Continue To Grow.

Infrastructure Investment In 2018 Is Expected To Exceed Expectations, And Sales Of Excavators Will Continue To Grow.

Date:Jun 16, 2018

According to China engineering machinery industry association mining machinery branch industry statistical data, in March 2018, total sales of various types of mining machinery products 38261, up 78.9% year on year. The domestic market sold 36643 units, an increase of 78% over the same period. Export sales were 1607, up 100.4% over the same period.


1. under the economic expectation, construction machinery is expected to rise independently.


At present, the market is more pessimistic about the macroeconomic trend in the second half of the year, so it is more concerned about the sharp decline of the annual sales volume of excavators. By tracing the sales volume of excavator, automobile production, railway freight volume, the increase of coal consumption of the 6 power generation group and the increase of industrial added value in the same month, we found that the micro index and macro index began to deviate in the second half of 2016. We believe that as China's economic transformation, industrial added value as the direction of economic growth gradually weakened. The main driving factor for the bottom recovery of the sub wheel excavator industry is the renewal and replacement, not only because of the expiration of the life of the excavator in the peak period of the 2011 sales, more factors are the substantial increase in the demand for advanced manufacturing capacity in the whole engineering machinery industry, and the recovery of the sales of the local excavator is a modern management. It is a leading enterprise represented by the channel construction and the stronger product competitiveness. We believe that macroeconomic indicators are dragged by "old capacity", the excavator industry after nearly 10 years of baptism, coupled with the impact of China and the United States trade war on exports, in 2018 infrastructure investment is expected to exceed the expectation, the leftover's advanced capacity is expected to cross the independent market through the cycle.


Infrastructure investment is expected to exceed expectations in 2018.


2. The market competition pattern and the huge adjustment of the product structure


At the peak period of the last round of 2010~2011 engineering machinery, domestic host plants were affected by the independent production capacity of core components and brand influence, and the main source of profit contribution was the low end products such as loaders. The market competition pattern is scattered. On the one hand, the domestic host plants are unable to compete with foreign manufacturers in the high-end market. On the other hand, the domestic manufacturers in the low end market fall into vicious price competition, which leads to a slight profit. With the recovery of this industry, a number of competitive local core components have appeared, and the proportion of the Hengli hydraulic excavator oil cylinder is 51.9% from 26.2% to 2016 in 2011. Nearly 20% of the hydraulic parts of Caterpillar and the hydraulic parts of Sany 60% are supplied by the constant hydraulic pressure, and the capacity of the domestic leading main engine factory is excavator and pump truck. And other high-end products, the whole industry has increased barriers, the industry profit space to further open.


3, the sales of excavators are expected to grow steadily


The sales data of excavators in the past ten years have been traced. In the 2006-2009 year, the sales of excavators were driven by urbanization. In the 2010-2011 year, the sales of excavators reached 166 thousand and the highest 194 thousand. In the 2012-2015 years, the demand was overdrafts due to the rapid increase in the stock market stock, and the industry went into stock. Cycle, sales continued to decline. The excavator market holdings have close to 1 million 300 thousand, the update cycle of 8-10 years calculated, we determine the future of the excavator market annual update average demand between 12-14 million units, sales of construction machinery in the future domestic market driven infrastructure market is expected to more fully, we think that "The Belt and Road along the country into The release of demographic dividend and the huge demand for public infrastructure will become the core growth engine of the next stage of China's local construction machinery plant. We maintained that in 2018, the sales volume of excavators exceeded 160 thousand, compared with the growth rate of about 20% a year.

  


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